Leaders | A dismal year for the dismal science

Economists had a dreadful 2023

Mistaken recession calls were just part of it

Nervous looking man underneath an oversized money duvet — Illustration: Travis Constantine

Dec 20th 2023

Spare a thought for economists. Last Christmas they were an unusually pessimistic lot: the growth they expected in America over the next calendar year was the fourth-lowest in 55 years of fourth-quarter surveys. Many expected recession; The Economist added to the prognostications of doom and gloom. This year economists must swap figgy pudding for humble pie, because America has probably grown by an above-trend 3%—about the same as in boomy 2005. Adding to the impression of befuddlement, most analysts were caught out on December 13th by a doveish turn by the Federal Reserve, which sent them scrambling to rewrite their outlooks for the new year.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “A dismal year for the dismal science”