Can he win?

WAITING for it, week after week, month after month, was as exciting as watching paint dry--and rather less productive. Even so, the general-election campaign that John Major finally set under way on March 17th promises to be remarkable. After more than six years as prime minister, Mr Major presides over a country in good economic health, with steady growth in living standards, falling unemployment, low inflation and peaceful industrial relations. Things are far from perfect, to be sure, but Britain faces no crises, either at home or abroad. Even Northern Ireland, for 25 years a bloody battleground, sits in a sullen sort of peace. According to electoral textbooks, in such circumstances only with a nuclear weapon could a challenger dislodge an incumbent. Yet Mr Major's party begins this campaign 26 percentage points behind Labour in the opinion polls. In effect, Mr Major is the challenger. Tony Blair is the incumbent.