Britain | A party turned upside down

The race to succeed Nicola Sturgeon has plunged the SNP into turmoil

The preference-falsification theory of revolution comes to Edinburgh

EDINBURGH, SCOTLAND - MARCH 21 : First Minister Nicola Sturgeon pictured in front of a portrait of Donald Dewar, the first First Minister of Scotland, as she waits for the lift to ministerial offices after a meeting of the SNP parliamentary group in the Scottish Parliament, in her last full week as First Minister, on March 21, 2023 in Edinburgh, Scotland. (Photo by Ken Jack/Getty Images)
Image: Getty Images

Revolutions present a paradox, observes Timur Kuran, a Turkish-American political scientist. Before the event, they often appear unlikely. When a collapse does occur—as in France in 1789 or Iran in 1979—they catch the world by surprise. Yet in hindsight those same revolutions appear inevitable, as the fragility of the previous regime is laid bare. Professor Kuran explains this contradiction through what he terms “preference falsification”: the tendency of people to pretend to be content with the status quo when there is no viable opposition, only to air their grievances at the first flicker of change.

This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline “A party turned upside down”

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