Our forecast puts Kamala Harris and Donald Trump neck and neck
We relaunch our presidential-election model for a transformed race
THE MOOD among Democrats, as they prepare to gather for their national convention in Chicago next week, is ebullient. Kamalamentum has transformed the presidential contest. Meanwhile, the Republicans are finding it hard to adjust to the new dynamics: the glitch that delayed the start of Donald Trump’s conversation with Elon Musk, carried live on X on August 12th, was emblematic of a campaign that is no longer going to plan. Yet if there is one lesson from this wild election year, it is that things can change with remarkable speed.
Explore more
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “A coin toss for the White House”
Leaders August 17th 2024
From the August 17th 2024 edition
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
Explore the editionMore from Leaders
How to improve clinical trials
Involving more participants can lead to new medical insights
Houthi Inc: the pirates who weaponised globalisation
Their Red Sea protection racket is a disturbing glimpse into an anarchic world
Donald Trump will upend 80 years of American foreign policy
A superpower’s approach to the world is about to be turned on its head
Rising bond yields should spur governments to go for growth
The bond sell-off may partly reflect America’s productivity boom
Much of the damage from the LA fires could have been averted
The lesson of the tragedy is that better incentives will keep people safe
Health warnings about alcohol give only half the story
Enjoyment matters as well as risk