Leaders | On a knife-edge

To win Brazil’s presidency, Lula should move to the centre

Another term for the populist Jair Bolsonaro would be bad for Brazil—and the world

Former Brazil's President and current presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a meeting with campaign associates for the second round of elections, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 3, 2022. REUTERS/Carla Carniel

Like a sudden encounter with an anaconda, it was tighter than expected. Several polls had shown Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president, beating Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing incumbent, by double digits. Some predicted that Lula would win over 50% in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, making a second round unnecessary. But in the actual vote on October 2nd he won only 48% to Mr Bolsonaro’s 43%. (The reason the polls undercounted Mr Bolsonaro’s supporters is uncertain, but it may be that many are “shy”, or suspicious of pollsters and reluctant to share their views with them.) The two candidates will face a run-off on October 30th, and Brazil faces a further month of polarisation .

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “On a knife-edge”

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