United States | Campaign calculus: mini-landslides

Recent special elections bode well for Democrats

They can help in predicting general elections

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson administers the oath of office to Rep. LaMonica McIver, as she is joined by her husband and daughter at a ceremonial swearing-in, at the Capitol in Washington.
Photograph: AP

If Republicans were about to experience a breakthrough among black voters, as some polls had suggested, New Jersey’s tenth congressional district (which includes Newark) might be a place to start. Around half its residents are black. But in the special election on September 18th to fill the district’s vacant House seat the Democratic candidate, LaMonica McIver, won in a landslide. She defeated her opponent by 81% to 16%—a larger margin than President Joe Biden managed there in 2020.

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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “The meaning of mini-landslides”

From the September 28th 2024 edition

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