Where is Kamala Harris’s convention bounce?
And what its absence means for election forecasting
National conventions are among the biggest spectacles of the presidential campaign. What was once a formal exercise to adopt a policy platform and nominate candidates is now a political variety show. Tightly choreographed, each party performs an all-singing, all-dancing televised audition to the nation, culminating in a curtain call and balloon drop. While this might look out of place in an era of political cynicism, millions of voters watch and reward the garish performances in opinion polls. After Bill Clinton, then governor of Arkansas, took to the stage in 1992, for example, voters were so impressed that his poll numbers leapt eight percentage points, putting him on course for victory.
Explore more
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Eeyore’s balloon”
United States September 7th 2024
- Americans’ love affair with big cars is killing them
- The Harris campaign hopes North Carolina will finally deliver
- The Onion’s cutting edge: paper
- The Trump campaign fires a barrage of negative advertisements
- America’s endless summers are good for mosquitoes, too
- Where is Kamala Harris’s convention bounce?
- Why Kamala Harris has the advantage in debating Donald Trump
Discover more
Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?
Yes, but other factors could hold him back
As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution
The president-elect hopes to hand the justice department to loyalists
Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return
But Mr Trump will be more prepared, too
Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks
The president-elect’s intelligence picks suggest a radical agenda
Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump is embracing a shift in Republican priorities
Will he follow through on his policy commitments?
Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as America’s attorney-general
Will the Senate be brave enough to block Donald Trump’s other outlandish nominees?