Five months out, Donald Trump has a clear lead
America’s presidential race is no coin flip, says our forecast
JOE BIDEN’S job-approval rating stands at 39%, putting him roughly in a tie for lowest of any president at this point in his term in the history of American polling. In all six states that could prove decisive in November he trails by between one and six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates’ margins have underperformed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr Biden would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Cold, hard numbers for November”
United States June 15th 2024
- Five months out, Donald Trump has a clear lead
- Might Wisconsin’s redrawn state-legislative districts help Biden win?
- Hunter Biden’s criminal conviction is good for nobody politically
- Louisiana could soon start castrating child-rapists
- Thousands of American pensioners are retiring on college campuses
- Brandon Johnson, Chicago’s leftist mayor, is struggling
- Joe Biden’s best chance to shake up the race
From the June 15th 2024 edition
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