Five months out, Donald Trump has a clear lead

JOE BIDEN’S job-approval rating stands at 39%, putting him roughly in a tie for lowest of any president at this point in his term in the history of American polling. In all six states that could prove decisive in November he trails by between one and six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates’ margins have underperformed the final polls by an average of six points in the past two elections. Even if he wins both, Mr Biden would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election.