Who are the swing voters in America?
We interrogated a dataset of 49,000 people to find out
DURING HIS two previous presidential campaigns, Donald Trump never led general-election polling averages for a single day. In 2016 he pulled within a percentage point of Hillary Clinton in July and September, but trailed in the opinion polls by four on election day. Four years later Joe Biden enjoyed a large, stable advantage over Mr Trump throughout the race, and ended it with an eight-point edge, according to pollsters. In both contests such surveys sharply underestimated the support Mr Trump received on election day, particularly in swing states.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “The parent trap”
United States April 13th 2024
From the April 13th 2024 edition
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Donald Trump may find it harder to dominate America’s conversation
A more fragmented media is tougher to manage
An FBI sting operation catches Jackson’s mayor taking big bribes
What the sensational undoing of the black leader means for Mississippi’s failing capital
America’s rural-urban divide nurtures wannabe state-splitters
What’s behind a new wave of secessionism
Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?
Yes, but other factors could hold him back
As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution
The president-elect hopes to hand the Justice Department to loyalists
Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return
But Mr Trump will be more prepared, too