Our tracker of voters’ intentions shows the contest behind Trump
And what might happen if Trump dropped out
To see how extraordinarily tight Donald Trump’s grip on his party is, look back eight years. Then Mr Trump was the unexpected front-runner in the Republican presidential primaries, polling at around 30%. That was still uncertain enough for The Economist to call his candidacy a “long shot” in December 2015. Today, according to our analysis of Republicans’ voting intentions, he has double the support he did then. His closest rival, Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is on a lowly 12% (see top chart). Of all the things that could stop Mr Trump from contesting next year’s election, the most probable obstacle is himself.
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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “A Don-horse race”
United States December 9th 2023
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From the December 9th 2023 edition
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