United States | It can’t happen here (again)

Donald Trump looks terrifyingly electable

If America’s presidential election were held tomorrow, he would probably win

People watch a broadcast of the final debate between then President Donald Trump and then Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in 2020
Image: Getty Images
|WASHINGTON, DC

WHAT MIGHTY armour Donald Trump wears. It is undented by a post-presidential impeachment trial, four ongoing criminal trials for 91 alleged felonies and all the attacks of the Republican challengers for the party’s nomination in 2024. Mr Trump’s hold over his party looks ironclad. His challengers appear quixotic as the first ballots of the primary, to be cast in Iowa in January, draw nearer. Shy to criticise the popular former president, his rivals have repeatedly argued that Mr Trump would be unable to defeat President Joe Biden. Democrats, who refused to even entertain the idea of persuading the octogenarian president to stand aside, seemed to share this analysis. Both have gravely underestimated Mr Trump. He has a considerable chance of being elected president—fair and square—in one year’s time on the first Tuesday in November 2024. If the election were to be held tomorrow, he would even be considered the favourite.

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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “It can’t happen here again”

From the November 11th 2023 edition

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