Meet our US 2020 election-forecasting model
In early June, it gives Donald Trump a one-in-five shot at re-election
FOUR MONTHS ago, Donald Trump’s odds of winning a second term had never looked better. After an easy acquittal in his impeachment trial, his approval rating had reached its highest level in three years, and was approaching the upper-40s range that delivered re-election to George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Unemployment was at a 50-year low, setting him up to take credit for a strong economy. And Bernie Sanders, a self-described socialist, had won the popular vote in each of the first three Democratic primary contests.
This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “Model voters”
From the June 13th 2020 edition
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