United States | A bogus bump

Why Donald Trump’s high approval ratings may be misleading

A statistical wrinkle makes the president appear more popular

|WASHINGTON, DC

ON ANY GIVEN day since he took office, Donald Trump has had a lower job-approval rating than almost every other modern president at the same point in their tenure. But over the past two weeks the polls have finally been giving Mr Trump some good news. According to an average of public polling data calculated by FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism website, he is more popular than he has been since March 2017, two months after he took office. The BBC called it Mr Trump’s “best week” yet in office. Political betting markets increased his chances of re-election by roughly ten percentage points.

This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition under the headline “A bogus bump”

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