As civil war rages in the country, millions of people have been displaced and famine is widespread. Why won’t the warring parties join talks to end it? Accusations of assassination plots and an attempted coup swirl in Brazil (9:28). And why Chinese bubble tea shops are conquering your local shopping street (17:33). Runtime: 24 min

As <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/11/21/a-genocidal-militias-quest-for-legitimacy?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">civil war</a><a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/11/21/a-genocidal-militias-quest-for-legitimacy?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank"> rages in the country</a>, millions of people have been displaced and famine is widespread. Why won’t the warring parties join talks to end it? Accusations of <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/11/22/bolsonaros-bid-to-regain-brazils-presidency-may-end-in-prison?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">assassination plots</a> and an attempted coup swirl in Brazil (9:28). And why Chinese bubble tea shops are conquering your local shopping street (17:33). Runtime: 24 min

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The Intelligence 

Why a peace deal in Sudan is so elusive

A truck carrying gunmen affiliated with Sudan's army drives on a street in the eastern city of Gedaref .

The Intelligence

A losing battle: Sudan’s elusive peace deal

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. An attempted coup, a plot to murder the president and a stash of weapons. These are just some of the accusations swirling around Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro. He denies everything. And have you noticed a quiet revolution on your local shopping street? Chinese bubble tea shops are conquering the world. But first.

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. An attempted coup, a plot to murder the president and a stash of weapons. These are just some of the accusations swirling around Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro. He denies everything. And have you noticed a quiet revolution on your local shopping street? Chinese bubble tea shops are conquering the world. But first.

Tom Gardner [00:01:10] Sudan. Civil war has been raging since April last year.

Tom Gardner [00:01:10] Sudan. Civil war has been raging since April last year.

Rosie Blau [00:01:14] Tom Gardner is our Africa correspondent.

Rosie Blau [00:01:14] Tom Gardner is our Africa correspondent.

Tom Gardner [00:01:18] Tens of thousands, maybe more, have died. Millions have been displaced, families wide spread. The struggle for power between the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces, the RSS. The paramilitary group has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Reports from Sudan are harrowing.

Tom Gardner [00:01:18] Tens of thousands, maybe more, have died. Millions have been displaced, families wide spread. The struggle for power between the Sudanese army and the rapid support forces, the RSS. The paramilitary group has created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Reports from Sudan are harrowing.

Clip [00:01:37] Some of them are threatening to rock the theatre.

Clip [00:01:37] Some of them are threatening to rock the theatre.

Tom Gardner [00:01:42] This man is one of many people displaced from our reserve, held to the island in Khartoum. He says there’s no good food there and disease is rife.

Tom Gardner [00:01:42] This man is one of many people displaced from our reserve, held to the island in Khartoum. He says there’s no good food there and disease is rife.

Clip [00:01:51] And pushing for mobility benefits. This kind of overcrowding socially and nothing is really quite the opposite of nice.

Clip [00:01:51] And pushing for mobility benefits. This kind of overcrowding socially and nothing is really quite the opposite of nice.

Tom Gardner [00:02:01] One woman says there was little to eat on the island and no medicine. The older dying, she says she was lucky she was able to flee. This time last year, the Reserve seemed to be on a road that controlled much the capital Khartoum, and almost all of Darfur in the West.

Tom Gardner [00:02:01] One woman says there was little to eat on the island and no medicine. The older dying, she says she was lucky she was able to flee. This time last year, the Reserve seemed to be on a road that controlled much the capital Khartoum, and almost all of Darfur in the West.

Rosie Blau [00:02:21] Tom, when we spoke over the summer, the RCF seemed to be in a strong position and on the brink of capturing Darfur’s capital. Al Fasher. What’s happened since then?

Rosie Blau [00:02:21] Tom, when we spoke over the summer, the RCF seemed to be in a strong position and on the brink of capturing Darfur’s capital. Al Fasher. What’s happened since then?

Tom Gardner [00:02:32] Yes. Rosy So it’s taken rather longer than many military analysts predicted, but possibly RCF is now very much on the brink of cut for now fashion. We’ll find out in the coming days and weeks, I suspect. However, elsewhere, the Army has made some quite significant inroads into Orissa controlled parts of Khartoum and also, with the help of allied militias, held its positions in the south last month as well. A senior reserve commander defected to the Army, which led to a wave of retaliatory attacks against civilians, which was so brutal that observers likened them to the ethnic cleansing in parts of West Darfur last year.

Tom Gardner [00:02:32] Yes. Rosy So it’s taken rather longer than many military analysts predicted, but possibly RCF is now very much on the brink of cut for now fashion. We’ll find out in the coming days and weeks, I suspect. However, elsewhere, the Army has made some quite significant inroads into Orissa controlled parts of Khartoum and also, with the help of allied militias, held its positions in the south last month as well. A senior reserve commander defected to the Army, which led to a wave of retaliatory attacks against civilians, which was so brutal that observers likened them to the ethnic cleansing in parts of West Darfur last year.

Rosie Blau [00:03:12] So it sounds like Sudan is still stuck deep in the middle of this horrible civil war.

Rosie Blau [00:03:12] So it sounds like Sudan is still stuck deep in the middle of this horrible civil war.

Tom Gardner [00:03:18] Yes, absolutely. I mean, the last time the two parties were on the brink of sitting down to talk in Switzerland in August, the army refused to attend. So those were a complete failure. Today, I think the chances of a negotiated settlement are still pretty distant, but there is still a glimmer of hope, I suppose, in Nairobi. And I was recently speaking to one of the state’s top negotiators as a dinner Safi, who was in town for a rare press conference.

Tom Gardner [00:03:18] Yes, absolutely. I mean, the last time the two parties were on the brink of sitting down to talk in Switzerland in August, the army refused to attend. So those were a complete failure. Today, I think the chances of a negotiated settlement are still pretty distant, but there is still a glimmer of hope, I suppose, in Nairobi. And I was recently speaking to one of the state’s top negotiators as a dinner Safi, who was in town for a rare press conference.

Speaker 5 [00:03:50] But it’s more than 50 million people living in poverty. Essentially, controls are deprived from their basic needs, including water, water, sanitation.

Speaker 5 [00:03:50] But it’s more than 50 million people living in poverty. Essentially, controls are deprived from their basic needs, including water, water, sanitation.

Tom Gardner [00:04:08] He told me he didn’t think either side could win. He said that the Reserve believes there’s no way out of this war through total victory for one side. Now, analysts are divided over whether the Reserve is genuine in its demand for negotiations and for negotiations to succeed. But if they are genuine, I wonder what kind of deal would be acceptable to them and also to their foreign backers, most notably the United Arab Emirates.

Tom Gardner [00:04:08] He told me he didn’t think either side could win. He said that the Reserve believes there’s no way out of this war through total victory for one side. Now, analysts are divided over whether the Reserve is genuine in its demand for negotiations and for negotiations to succeed. But if they are genuine, I wonder what kind of deal would be acceptable to them and also to their foreign backers, most notably the United Arab Emirates.

Rosie Blau [00:04:37] And what do you think? What kind of deal might work for the reserve?

Rosie Blau [00:04:37] And what do you think? What kind of deal might work for the reserve?

Tom Gardner [00:04:41] Al-Saadi outlined a proposal of sorts. He said a negotiated settlement should begin with a cessation of hostilities. He wanted foreign battle lines to be frozen, both sides to withdraw from what he called civilian installations. So homes, schools, for example. He spoke of a demilitarised buffer zone enforced potentially, he conceded, by African peacekeepers and then looking a bit further forward. He spoke of a national dialogue which would exclude, he said, members of the former ruling party and also Islamists who he says are key instigators behind the war and sustaining the fighting today.

Tom Gardner [00:04:41] Al-Saadi outlined a proposal of sorts. He said a negotiated settlement should begin with a cessation of hostilities. He wanted foreign battle lines to be frozen, both sides to withdraw from what he called civilian installations. So homes, schools, for example. He spoke of a demilitarised buffer zone enforced potentially, he conceded, by African peacekeepers and then looking a bit further forward. He spoke of a national dialogue which would exclude, he said, members of the former ruling party and also Islamists who he says are key instigators behind the war and sustaining the fighting today.

Rosie Blau [00:05:27] And you mentioned that last time the Army didn’t even turn up to negotiations. Do we know whether they might be more willing to talk now and what they’d be willing to talk about?

Rosie Blau [00:05:27] And you mentioned that last time the Army didn’t even turn up to negotiations. Do we know whether they might be more willing to talk now and what they’d be willing to talk about?

Tom Gardner [00:05:38] Last week, America’s special envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, was in Port Sudan, the de facto capital and the Army’s base for the first time since the war began. He sat down with the generals. There was no sense from people I spoke to that he was on the cusp of convincing them to appear at the negotiating table seriously for the very first time. So I doubt that it’s imminent. The Army thinks it’s now got the momentum. That’s crucial to understand. It has received arms from a host of powers, including Iran, has backing of Russia as well. And when I last spoke to the generals in July, when I was in Port Sudan, I was told that they were fighting to prevent The Break-Up of Sudan and that they would fight until they were in control of every corner of the country. I’m actually a little bit unsure if that’s really the case. Many observers suspect that there are plenty inside the army who would willingly. Relinquish, for instance, Darfur. They would say we don’t have much in common with the first diverse population. They don’t have much in common with US Northern Sudanese. For too long it’s been a rebellious part of the country. We could do without it. So because of that, the Reserve has now begun trumpeting its firm commitment to keeping Sudan together. Al Safi told me directly, the RCF will never allow a divided Sudan. Sudan will stay united. That was quite the striking statement, I thought. The thing is, the army has been seen by the international community on the whole since the war began as the more legitimate party in the eyes of most Sudanese. That said, its refusal to join the talks as weakens its international standing. So I think the RCF is making a play to pitch itself as the more reliable partner for peace in this conflict.

Tom Gardner [00:05:38] Last week, America’s special envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, was in Port Sudan, the de facto capital and the Army’s base for the first time since the war began. He sat down with the generals. There was no sense from people I spoke to that he was on the cusp of convincing them to appear at the negotiating table seriously for the very first time. So I doubt that it’s imminent. The Army thinks it’s now got the momentum. That’s crucial to understand. It has received arms from a host of powers, including Iran, has backing of Russia as well. And when I last spoke to the generals in July, when I was in Port Sudan, I was told that they were fighting to prevent The Break-Up of Sudan and that they would fight until they were in control of every corner of the country. I’m actually a little bit unsure if that’s really the case. Many observers suspect that there are plenty inside the army who would willingly. Relinquish, for instance, Darfur. They would say we don’t have much in common with the first diverse population. They don’t have much in common with US Northern Sudanese. For too long it’s been a rebellious part of the country. We could do without it. So because of that, the Reserve has now begun trumpeting its firm commitment to keeping Sudan together. Al Safi told me directly, the RCF will never allow a divided Sudan. Sudan will stay united. That was quite the striking statement, I thought. The thing is, the army has been seen by the international community on the whole since the war began as the more legitimate party in the eyes of most Sudanese. That said, its refusal to join the talks as weakens its international standing. So I think the RCF is making a play to pitch itself as the more reliable partner for peace in this conflict.

Rosie Blau [00:07:42] Tom, you spoke earlier of a glimmer of hope. And what you just said also sounds somewhat hopeful. So how bright is that glimmer? How much of a chance is there of any kind of peace deal?

Rosie Blau [00:07:42] Tom, you spoke earlier of a glimmer of hope. And what you just said also sounds somewhat hopeful. So how bright is that glimmer? How much of a chance is there of any kind of peace deal?

Tom Gardner [00:07:54] The answer keeps reiterating to me, we want to sit at the table and talk. However, it also says the Army is not going to do that any time soon, so we have no choice but to fight. So I think there is a bit of an impasse in that regard. I also think we should be pretty sceptical about the reception commitments to genuinely engaging in good faith. For example, it’s promised repeatedly to allow aid into areas under its control, in particular the city of Belfast in Darfur. In reality, Fatah is under siege and elsewhere, aid workers say the ISF itself has erected all sorts of bureaucratic obstacles to the delivery of aid. Its leaders bluntly deny atrocities, which are extremely well documented. Sexual violence, for instance, which is extremely well attested. So I think there’s a going to be a long way to go before the ISF will be trusted by the international community or by ordinary Sudanese civilians. And all the while, the war goes on, the suffering, the famine and a pervasive sense of hopelessness.

Tom Gardner [00:07:54] The answer keeps reiterating to me, we want to sit at the table and talk. However, it also says the Army is not going to do that any time soon, so we have no choice but to fight. So I think there is a bit of an impasse in that regard. I also think we should be pretty sceptical about the reception commitments to genuinely engaging in good faith. For example, it’s promised repeatedly to allow aid into areas under its control, in particular the city of Belfast in Darfur. In reality, Fatah is under siege and elsewhere, aid workers say the ISF itself has erected all sorts of bureaucratic obstacles to the delivery of aid. Its leaders bluntly deny atrocities, which are extremely well documented. Sexual violence, for instance, which is extremely well attested. So I think there’s a going to be a long way to go before the ISF will be trusted by the international community or by ordinary Sudanese civilians. And all the while, the war goes on, the suffering, the famine and a pervasive sense of hopelessness.

Rosie Blau [00:09:07] Tom, thank you. I hope one day that we can speak about slightly happier things.

Rosie Blau [00:09:07] Tom, thank you. I hope one day that we can speak about slightly happier things.

Tom Gardner [00:09:11] I hope so, too. Thank you, Rosie.

Tom Gardner [00:09:11] I hope so, too. Thank you, Rosie.

Rosie Blau [00:09:31] Among those who welcomed the re-election of Donald Trump was the former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. May Trump’s victory inspire Brazil to follow the same path he posted on X? Bolsonaro is hoping to stand for re-election in 2026 as the candidate for the right. Instead, he could be spending the next few years in jail.

Rosie Blau [00:09:31] Among those who welcomed the re-election of Donald Trump was the former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. May Trump’s victory inspire Brazil to follow the same path he posted on X? Bolsonaro is hoping to stand for re-election in 2026 as the candidate for the right. Instead, he could be spending the next few years in jail.

Ana Lankes [00:09:53] So on November 21st, Jair Bolsonaro was formally accused by police of attempting to prevent a newly elected government from taking office.

Ana Lankes [00:09:53] So on November 21st, Jair Bolsonaro was formally accused by police of attempting to prevent a newly elected government from taking office.

Rosie Blau [00:10:04] And allowing us is our Brazil bureau chief.

Rosie Blau [00:10:04] And allowing us is our Brazil bureau chief.

Ana Lankes [00:10:07] Let me give you some context. In October 2022, Brazil held a presidential election and the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, was running against the left winger, Louisiana’s Joe Lula da Silva. Lula won. He’s currently the president. But police say that between winning and Lula taking office in January 2023, Bolsonaro was involved in several attempts to prevent Lula from taking office. Another 36 people have been charged, and the former president denies all charges. But these accusations are looking pretty serious. The crimes under investigation carry a combined maximum prison sentence of 28 years.

Ana Lankes [00:10:07] Let me give you some context. In October 2022, Brazil held a presidential election and the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, was running against the left winger, Louisiana’s Joe Lula da Silva. Lula won. He’s currently the president. But police say that between winning and Lula taking office in January 2023, Bolsonaro was involved in several attempts to prevent Lula from taking office. Another 36 people have been charged, and the former president denies all charges. But these accusations are looking pretty serious. The crimes under investigation carry a combined maximum prison sentence of 28 years.

Rosie Blau [00:10:50] So, Ana, tell me exactly what he stands accused of.

Rosie Blau [00:10:50] So, Ana, tell me exactly what he stands accused of.

Ana Lankes [00:10:54] So the police compile an 884 page report. They’ve said that Bolsonaro was involved in an attempted coup. What they’re basically saying is that he did many things in the run up to the election and then during the transition period to try to prevent Lula from taking office. And this included things like spreading doubts about the reliability of voting machines, claiming that if he didn’t win the election was rigged, calling together meetings with top government officials and army officials and trying to convince them that a coup was necessary. And it all culminated on January 8th, 2023, one week after Lula took office, when thousands of Bolsonaro zealots stormed government buildings. They ransacked the Supreme Court and the presidential palace and Congress. And this was very much an attack that looked like the January 6th Capitol riots.

Ana Lankes [00:10:54] So the police compile an 884 page report. They’ve said that Bolsonaro was involved in an attempted coup. What they’re basically saying is that he did many things in the run up to the election and then during the transition period to try to prevent Lula from taking office. And this included things like spreading doubts about the reliability of voting machines, claiming that if he didn’t win the election was rigged, calling together meetings with top government officials and army officials and trying to convince them that a coup was necessary. And it all culminated on January 8th, 2023, one week after Lula took office, when thousands of Bolsonaro zealots stormed government buildings. They ransacked the Supreme Court and the presidential palace and Congress. And this was very much an attack that looked like the January 6th Capitol riots.

Rosie Blau [00:11:54] It’s making January the 6th seem like a kid’s playground fight.

Rosie Blau [00:11:54] It’s making January the 6th seem like a kid’s playground fight.

Ana Lankes [00:11:58] It definitely does, especially because Brazilians have been expecting some sort of charge related to a coup attempt in the last two years. And they’ve been drip feeding the press information about the coup related charges. However, on the 19th of November, they also unsealed a 221 page report about an assassination plot which alleges that after Bolsonaro’s defeat, a plan was hatched to murder Lula, his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, and a judge on Brazil’s Supreme Court, Alessandra de Moraes. According to that report, Lula and Geraldo Alckmin would have been killed in order to prevent them from taking office. The report includes allegations that a deputy minister in Bolsonaro’s government, General Mario Fernandez, used a printer inside the presidential palace to print out an outline of the assassination plot, which included the weapons to be used to kill these people. So again, I want to stress that Bolsonaro has denied knowing about any of this.

Ana Lankes [00:11:58] It definitely does, especially because Brazilians have been expecting some sort of charge related to a coup attempt in the last two years. And they’ve been drip feeding the press information about the coup related charges. However, on the 19th of November, they also unsealed a 221 page report about an assassination plot which alleges that after Bolsonaro’s defeat, a plan was hatched to murder Lula, his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, and a judge on Brazil’s Supreme Court, Alessandra de Moraes. According to that report, Lula and Geraldo Alckmin would have been killed in order to prevent them from taking office. The report includes allegations that a deputy minister in Bolsonaro’s government, General Mario Fernandez, used a printer inside the presidential palace to print out an outline of the assassination plot, which included the weapons to be used to kill these people. So again, I want to stress that Bolsonaro has denied knowing about any of this.

Speaker 5 [00:13:02] The families of young communists are still of faith losing cards.

Speaker 5 [00:13:02] The families of young communists are still of faith losing cards.

Ana Lankes [00:13:07] He denies all charges, and he says he hasn’t yet been able to read that 884 page report.

Ana Lankes [00:13:07] He denies all charges, and he says he hasn’t yet been able to read that 884 page report.

Rosie Blau [00:13:14] These are absolutely extraordinary accusations. How has Bolsonaro reacted other than denying them?

Rosie Blau [00:13:14] These are absolutely extraordinary accusations. How has Bolsonaro reacted other than denying them?

Ana Lankes [00:13:22] So he says that this is political persecution. He says that the left is basically trying to prevent him from coming to power in 2026, because remember that just a few weeks ago, things were really looking up for Bolsonaro and the riots in general in Brazil. Donald Trump won the November 5th election in the United States, which really excited the Bolsonaro star, right. In October, right wing and centre right parties won big in local elections in Brazil. Bolsonaro said he would be the presidential candidate for the right in 2026. So he and his supporters are saying that he’s being persecuted.

Ana Lankes [00:13:22] So he says that this is political persecution. He says that the left is basically trying to prevent him from coming to power in 2026, because remember that just a few weeks ago, things were really looking up for Bolsonaro and the riots in general in Brazil. Donald Trump won the November 5th election in the United States, which really excited the Bolsonaro star, right. In October, right wing and centre right parties won big in local elections in Brazil. Bolsonaro said he would be the presidential candidate for the right in 2026. So he and his supporters are saying that he’s being persecuted.

Speaker 5 [00:13:58] He has a house. So Alexandria damaged Trump and he stands on the edge here.

Speaker 5 [00:13:58] He has a house. So Alexandria damaged Trump and he stands on the edge here.

Ana Lankes [00:14:03] A source in this country who’s a federal congressman for Bolsonaro party. And he says all of this is a reaction to Trump’s election because the left suddenly realised that Bolsonaro could come back. But there are some events that are making this whole case more urgent. On November 13th, a man previously affiliated with Bolsonaro, his political party, blew himself up in a failed attack on Brazil’s Supreme Court. And then just days later, the police unsealed this huge report about a failed assassination plot against Lula, his vice president, and election judges. Morales And they arrested four members of an elite Army unit and a police officer for the alleged plot to kill them.

Ana Lankes [00:14:03] A source in this country who’s a federal congressman for Bolsonaro party. And he says all of this is a reaction to Trump’s election because the left suddenly realised that Bolsonaro could come back. But there are some events that are making this whole case more urgent. On November 13th, a man previously affiliated with Bolsonaro, his political party, blew himself up in a failed attack on Brazil’s Supreme Court. And then just days later, the police unsealed this huge report about a failed assassination plot against Lula, his vice president, and election judges. Morales And they arrested four members of an elite Army unit and a police officer for the alleged plot to kill them.

Rosie Blau [00:14:43] And how has the left responded to all of this?

Rosie Blau [00:14:43] And how has the left responded to all of this?

Ana Lankes [00:14:46] The indictments have really galvanised the left. So I asked a lawyer who has worked closely with Lula what he makes of all of this and what the chances are of Bolsonaro going to jail. And he responded that the chances are very high.

Ana Lankes [00:14:46] The indictments have really galvanised the left. So I asked a lawyer who has worked closely with Lula what he makes of all of this and what the chances are of Bolsonaro going to jail. And he responded that the chances are very high.

Clip [00:15:00] Simply for using intellectual disability.

Clip [00:15:00] Simply for using intellectual disability.

Ana Lankes [00:15:03] His name is Mark Guadalupe Carvalho, and he called Bolsonaro the intellectual author of The Coup.

Ana Lankes [00:15:03] His name is Mark Guadalupe Carvalho, and he called Bolsonaro the intellectual author of The Coup.

Clip [00:15:10] In History of Science. And we performed in North Africa.

Clip [00:15:10] In History of Science. And we performed in North Africa.

Ana Lankes [00:15:13] He told me that his prison sentence is a question of when, not if.

Ana Lankes [00:15:13] He told me that his prison sentence is a question of when, not if.

Rosie Blau [00:15:17] Does this spell the end of Bolsonaro’s political career?

Rosie Blau [00:15:17] Does this spell the end of Bolsonaro’s political career?

Ana Lankes [00:15:20] Not necessarily. Bolsonaro was already barred from running for public office for eight years for using state media to spread falsehoods about the reliability of voting machines in the run up to the elections of 2022. Bolsonaro and his supporters, they think that even if he goes to jail, he’ll be an important figure on the right and that he might have a political future after jail. So, for example, I spoke to see last month a fire who’s a televangelist and a very close ally. The narrow, more commonly thought, my God. He told me that Bolsonaro will be the biggest vote getter, whether in jail or ineligible. And that’s because Bolsonaro still remains one of the most important and popular political figures on Brazil’s right. So you asked me earlier how Bolsonaro was have reacted to this. And even though it’s becoming increasingly harder to defend Bolsonaro, some of the most promising right wing candidates for the presidential elections of 2026 have refused to condemn Bolsonaro. And they’re sticking by his side because they need his voter base.

Ana Lankes [00:15:20] Not necessarily. Bolsonaro was already barred from running for public office for eight years for using state media to spread falsehoods about the reliability of voting machines in the run up to the elections of 2022. Bolsonaro and his supporters, they think that even if he goes to jail, he’ll be an important figure on the right and that he might have a political future after jail. So, for example, I spoke to see last month a fire who’s a televangelist and a very close ally. The narrow, more commonly thought, my God. He told me that Bolsonaro will be the biggest vote getter, whether in jail or ineligible. And that’s because Bolsonaro still remains one of the most important and popular political figures on Brazil’s right. So you asked me earlier how Bolsonaro was have reacted to this. And even though it’s becoming increasingly harder to defend Bolsonaro, some of the most promising right wing candidates for the presidential elections of 2026 have refused to condemn Bolsonaro. And they’re sticking by his side because they need his voter base.

Rosie Blau [00:16:23] Ana, it’s hard not to draw any parallels with Donald Trump here, but I’m interested to know, do you think that Trump himself could actually have any influence on the situation here?

Rosie Blau [00:16:23] Ana, it’s hard not to draw any parallels with Donald Trump here, but I’m interested to know, do you think that Trump himself could actually have any influence on the situation here?

Ana Lankes [00:16:34] So Trump is bolsonaro’s idol and Bolsonaro’s supporters think that Trump could help them and that he could badmouth Brazilian authorities. They also think that because Elon Musk is now Trump’s right hand billionaire, that could work in their favour and that Elon Musk has been in a months long feud with Morales would culminated in his social media platform, IX being shut down in Brazil for more than a month. Musk has called Morales an evil dictator and Darth Vader. But the truth is, I don’t think there’s that much Trump and Musk can do. So. Such talk that Musk is using against bot eyes sounds menacing, but for now, Bolsonaro’s enemies have the upper hand.

Ana Lankes [00:16:34] So Trump is bolsonaro’s idol and Bolsonaro’s supporters think that Trump could help them and that he could badmouth Brazilian authorities. They also think that because Elon Musk is now Trump’s right hand billionaire, that could work in their favour and that Elon Musk has been in a months long feud with Morales would culminated in his social media platform, IX being shut down in Brazil for more than a month. Musk has called Morales an evil dictator and Darth Vader. But the truth is, I don’t think there’s that much Trump and Musk can do. So. Such talk that Musk is using against bot eyes sounds menacing, but for now, Bolsonaro’s enemies have the upper hand.

Rosie Blau [00:17:15] And a fascinating stuff. Thank you so much for talking to me.

Rosie Blau [00:17:15] And a fascinating stuff. Thank you so much for talking to me.

Ana Lankes [00:17:19] Thanks for having me, Rosie.

Ana Lankes [00:17:19] Thanks for having me, Rosie.

Jason Chau [00:17:35] So we’re on Shrewsbury Avenue, which is really centrally located in London. It’s near Piccadilly Circus in Leicester Square, and it’s right by Chinatown.

Jason Chau [00:17:35] So we’re on Shrewsbury Avenue, which is really centrally located in London. It’s near Piccadilly Circus in Leicester Square, and it’s right by Chinatown.

Rosie Blau [00:17:46] Jason Chow writes for our Foreign Desk and he recently invited me for a drink at a chain called Haiti.

Rosie Blau [00:17:46] Jason Chow writes for our Foreign Desk and he recently invited me for a drink at a chain called Haiti.

Jason Chau [00:17:53] And you see, you know, the Chinatown site, it’s a lot of these Chinese and Asian restaurants. You also see these lanterns out here, and it looks really festive. It’s almost like Chinese New Year every day. And then on this side, you have these West End theatres. And this is where you’ll see the world of maze. Meet the world of Chinese bubble tea.

Jason Chau [00:17:53] And you see, you know, the Chinatown site, it’s a lot of these Chinese and Asian restaurants. You also see these lanterns out here, and it looks really festive. It’s almost like Chinese New Year every day. And then on this side, you have these West End theatres. And this is where you’ll see the world of maze. Meet the world of Chinese bubble tea.

Rosie Blau [00:18:15] So, Jason, I have a confession for you. Yes. Which is that I am a bubble tea virgin. So I.

Rosie Blau [00:18:15] So, Jason, I have a confession for you. Yes. Which is that I am a bubble tea virgin. So I.

Jason Chau [00:18:21] Really. Gosh. So I think it’s extra special day to day, you know?

Jason Chau [00:18:21] Really. Gosh. So I think it’s extra special day to day, you know?

Rosie Blau [00:18:27] I mean, popping my bubble tea. Cherry. I’m excited.

Rosie Blau [00:18:27] I mean, popping my bubble tea. Cherry. I’m excited.

Jason Chau [00:18:33] No, no, it’s. And we’ve come to a really, really good place to do that as well.

Jason Chau [00:18:33] No, no, it’s. And we’ve come to a really, really good place to do that as well.

Rosie Blau [00:18:40] Okay, Jason, What am I getting?

Rosie Blau [00:18:40] Okay, Jason, What am I getting?

Jason Chau [00:18:46] There’s cloud mango. There’s coconut. Mango. Boom. There is mango. Grapefruit. So I’ve got the supreme brown sugar bubble tea of your.

Jason Chau [00:18:46] There’s cloud mango. There’s coconut. Mango. Boom. There is mango. Grapefruit. So I’ve got the supreme brown sugar bubble tea of your.

Unidentified [00:19:11] You know I think the a side.

Unidentified [00:19:11] You know I think the a side.

Rosie Blau [00:19:20] Okay. So we go back to the office to get out of the rain, shall we? Yeah, the taste of that is much nicer. Bottles are disgusting, but that kind of squidgy and yucky.

Rosie Blau [00:19:20] Okay. So we go back to the office to get out of the rain, shall we? Yeah, the taste of that is much nicer. Bottles are disgusting, but that kind of squidgy and yucky.

Jason Chau [00:19:33] Is just the latest slimy little balls in your mouth.

Jason Chau [00:19:33] Is just the latest slimy little balls in your mouth.

Rosie Blau [00:19:38] Right? Yeah, exactly. Slimy little balls in your mouth. What is.

Rosie Blau [00:19:38] Right? Yeah, exactly. Slimy little balls in your mouth. What is.

Rosie Blau [00:19:45] I would say eight out of ten for the taste. Yes. Two out of ten for the texture. Okay. Jason, I have now drunk bubble tea for the first time, which I’m very excited about. Can you just give me a sense of why we’re talking about this?

Rosie Blau [00:19:45] I would say eight out of ten for the taste. Yes. Two out of ten for the texture. Okay. Jason, I have now drunk bubble tea for the first time, which I’m very excited about. Can you just give me a sense of why we’re talking about this?

Jason Chau [00:20:02] The story here is that a lot of these Chinese chains that are popping up in London, but also in a lot of global cities like New York, Singapore, are actually already big household names in China, but they are largely unknown in the rest of the world. Now they’re trying to make a name for themselves.

Jason Chau [00:20:02] The story here is that a lot of these Chinese chains that are popping up in London, but also in a lot of global cities like New York, Singapore, are actually already big household names in China, but they are largely unknown in the rest of the world. Now they’re trying to make a name for themselves.

Rosie Blau [00:20:20] And why are we suddenly seeing this in the last couple of years?

Rosie Blau [00:20:20] And why are we suddenly seeing this in the last couple of years?

Jason Chau [00:20:23] So there’s a few reasons here. And the first is that the food and beverage landscape in China is extremely competitive. Just last year, in 2023, more than 3 million new food and beverage companies registered in China. And that tells you is how competitive it is. Popular chains are essentially resorting to slashing prices to distinguish themselves. And this price war is leading to dwindling profits. And hence, for a lot of these chains, there is increasing need to find alternative markets to survive. The second reason is that China is also in the grips of a period of consumption downgrade. Demand in the Chinese economy is low and people are just not spending.

Jason Chau [00:20:23] So there’s a few reasons here. And the first is that the food and beverage landscape in China is extremely competitive. Just last year, in 2023, more than 3 million new food and beverage companies registered in China. And that tells you is how competitive it is. Popular chains are essentially resorting to slashing prices to distinguish themselves. And this price war is leading to dwindling profits. And hence, for a lot of these chains, there is increasing need to find alternative markets to survive. The second reason is that China is also in the grips of a period of consumption downgrade. Demand in the Chinese economy is low and people are just not spending.

Rosie Blau [00:21:12] So is the decision to go abroad just because there isn’t enough demand at home?

Rosie Blau [00:21:12] So is the decision to go abroad just because there isn’t enough demand at home?

Jason Chau [00:21:17] The other part of it is the government actually also wants this trend to accelerate. And so the Chinese authorities announced plans earlier this year to promote Chinese food and culture abroad. It’s part of China’s way of bolstering its soft power influence. And so Chinese brands are more willing to explore opportunities overseas because they’ve been promised that they will receive assistance when it comes to, for example, exporting ingredients when it comes to their personal chef training from culinary schools. And so there’s definitely a political will and support behind this as well.

Jason Chau [00:21:17] The other part of it is the government actually also wants this trend to accelerate. And so the Chinese authorities announced plans earlier this year to promote Chinese food and culture abroad. It’s part of China’s way of bolstering its soft power influence. And so Chinese brands are more willing to explore opportunities overseas because they’ve been promised that they will receive assistance when it comes to, for example, exporting ingredients when it comes to their personal chef training from culinary schools. And so there’s definitely a political will and support behind this as well.

Rosie Blau [00:21:55] So what’s the market for these chains abroad?

Rosie Blau [00:21:55] So what’s the market for these chains abroad?

Jason Chau [00:21:58] One of the reasons why a lot of these chains have experienced initial success is that they’ve really targeted the growing number of Chinese living abroad, whether that is Chinese immigrants or overseas, Chinese, for example, Chinese students living in the UK or the US. And if you look at the statistics, the population of overseas Chinese in the past seven years worldwide grew by more than 3 million. And so all of that has really generated further demand for this kind of Chinese food and dining experience. And so you see that unlike a lot of these Chinese restaurants in the past generations or past decades that try to cater to local palates. These new Chinese chains are not really doing that.

Jason Chau [00:21:58] One of the reasons why a lot of these chains have experienced initial success is that they’ve really targeted the growing number of Chinese living abroad, whether that is Chinese immigrants or overseas, Chinese, for example, Chinese students living in the UK or the US. And if you look at the statistics, the population of overseas Chinese in the past seven years worldwide grew by more than 3 million. And so all of that has really generated further demand for this kind of Chinese food and dining experience. And so you see that unlike a lot of these Chinese restaurants in the past generations or past decades that try to cater to local palates. These new Chinese chains are not really doing that.

Rosie Blau [00:22:42] Almost everyone who is at the bubble tea shop that we just went to was speaking Mandarin. Yes. So it’ll be interesting to see whether it really works as soft power if most of your customers are actually from China anyway.

Rosie Blau [00:22:42] Almost everyone who is at the bubble tea shop that we just went to was speaking Mandarin. Yes. So it’ll be interesting to see whether it really works as soft power if most of your customers are actually from China anyway.

Jason Chau [00:22:55] I think that is actually one of the biggest challenges, right? The markets where a lot of these chains have had the most success is Southeast Asia, where Chinese culture is a lot closer to their own cultures. But to have that success in, for example, North America, like the U.S., Canada or the U.K., it’s going to be a lot tougher. But it seems to be something that these trains really want.

Jason Chau [00:22:55] I think that is actually one of the biggest challenges, right? The markets where a lot of these chains have had the most success is Southeast Asia, where Chinese culture is a lot closer to their own cultures. But to have that success in, for example, North America, like the U.S., Canada or the U.K., it’s going to be a lot tougher. But it seems to be something that these trains really want.

Rosie Blau [00:23:20] Jason, thank you so much. I’m not going to finish my bubble tea.

Rosie Blau [00:23:20] Jason, thank you so much. I’m not going to finish my bubble tea.

Jason Chau [00:23:23] Thanks, Rosy. Thanks for having me on.

Jason Chau [00:23:23] Thanks, Rosy. Thanks for having me on.

Rosie Blau [00:23:38] Subscribing to Economist podcast plus helps make our journalism possible. Thank you. Search Economist Podcast Plus for a free trial. That’s all for this episode of the Intelligence. Let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch at podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Rosie Blau [00:23:38] Subscribing to Economist podcast plus helps make our journalism possible. Thank you. Search Economist Podcast Plus for a free trial. That’s all for this episode of the Intelligence. Let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch at podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

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