Middle East & Africa | America’s reverse-Goldilocks strategy

Why Iran is hard to intimidate

US soldiers are a bull’s-eye target for Iranian militias

An American combat aircraft on the deck of an aircraft carrier.
Within striking distancePhotograph: AFP
|DUBAI

DETERRENCE IS A simple concept: using the threat of force to stop an enemy from doing something. America ought to have no trouble restraining Iran thus. The former has a globe-striding army; the latter relies on warships and fighter jets that predate the Moon landing. In practice, though, Iran has proved devilishly difficult to deter. It is hard to put off insurgents and militias with air campaigns; their goals are attrition and survival, not well-ordered governance, and they are willing to take casualties. Full-scale invasion may be the only sure way to deter them but the history of such interventions is salutary.

Explore more

This article appeared in the Middle East & Africa section of the print edition under the headline “Why Iran is so hard to intimidate”

Killer drones: Pioneered in Ukraine, the weapons of the future

From the February 10th 2024 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

Discover more

A man inspects the damage at the site of an overnight Israeli airstrike that targeted the Shayyah neighborhood in Beirut's southern suburbs on November 26, 2024

Israel and Hizbullah strike a fragile deal to end their war 

Joe Biden’s last roll of the dice on peace in the Middle East

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant hold a press conference in Tel Aviv

The arrest warrant is a diplomatic disaster for Netanyahu

But may also undermine the International Criminal Court


Food distributed to displaced Palestinians in Gaza

Israel’s hardliners reckon Gaza’s chaos shows they must control it

Only 11 out of a recent convoy of 109 aid trucks managed to get in


Why GM crops aren’t feeding Africa

Despite decades of research, few countries grow them there

A genocidal militia’s quest for legitimacy

A warring party in Sudan claims it wants to talk peace

Get ready for “Maximum Pressure 2.0” on Iran 

The Trump White House may bomb and penalise the regime into a deal