Poised to strike?

SUFFERING from a touch of déjà vu? Oil prices have more than tripled since the end of 1998; political leaders, including Bill Clinton, are appealing to OPEC countries, whose oil ministers are meeting this weekend, to increase production; France has seen the return of long queues at petrol stations, as road hauliers protesting about fuel prices block supplies (see article). Such news brings back scary memories of the three previous big oil-price shocks, in the early and late 1970s, and in 1990. On each of those occasions, when oil prices also roughly tripled, inflation duly rose and the world economy slipped into recession. Yet, oddly, hardly anybody seems worried about such a prospect today—not least investors, who have been pushing share prices towards new highs in many stockmarkets around the world. Oil no longer matters, they seem to believe: the new economy runs on information and silicon chips. But, although there is no cause for panic about oil prices, this view looks terribly complacent.