Graphic detail | Forecasting covid-19

Early projections of covid-19 in America underestimated its severity

By luck or by design, they have improved markedly since

SOME 80 DAYS have now passed since the first death from covid-19 occurred on America’s shores. Since then over 90,000 people in the country have succumbed to the virus. That toll is greater than America’s combat deaths in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq combined. Whereas governments do not release their forecasts of how many people will be killed in wars, predictions of covid-19 deaths in America have been published and are widely scrutinised.

This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “A terrible toll”

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