What markets and models expect in 2020
Brexit is a near-certainty; American withdrawal from NATO a long shot
“PREDICTION IS DIFFICULT,” they say, “especially about the future.” Statistical models can yield tolerably accurate projections for events that occur often, but not for one-offs, for which there are no historical data. One way to estimate the odds of such events is the “wisdom of crowds”. Just as stockmarkets aggregate beliefs about risk and firms’ future profits, betting markets reveal a consensus view about future political and news events.
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline “What are the odds?”
Graphic detail January 4th 2020
From the January 4th 2020 edition
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