Finance & economics | Worst-keg scenario

Could war in the Gulf push oil to $100 a barrel?

Missiles are flying over a region that supplies a third of the world’s crude

An Iranian national flag flies at the Persian Gulf Star Co. gas condensate refinery in Bandar Abbas, Iran, January 9th 2019
In Israeli sights?Photograph: Getty Images

EVER SINCE Hamas’s attacks on Israel a year ago, the biggest fear in oil markets has been that tensions would escalate into a full-blown regional war pitting Israel against Iran, the world’s seventh-largest producer of crude. Until recently both countries seemed keen to avoid it. That explains why initial jitters on oil markets after October 7th last year soon gave way to the low and stable prices that have prevailed for much of this year.

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This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Worst-keg scenario”

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