America’s recession signals are flashing red. Don’t believe them
We assess a range of measures
An early-warning system for recessions would be worth trillions of dollars. Governments could dole out stimulus at just the right time; investors could turn a nice profit. Unfortunately, the process for calling a recession is too slow to be useful. America’s arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research, can take months to decide. Other countries simply look at gdp data, which emerge with a lag.
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This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Rules are rules”
Finance & economics August 24th 2024
- Kamala Harris’s cost-of-living plan will end in failure
- America’s anti-price-gouging laws are too minor to be communist
- America’s recession signals are flashing red. Don’t believe them
- Why don’t women use artificial intelligence?
- Why investors are not buying Europe’s revival
- Investors should avoid a new generation of rip-off ETFs
- Artificial intelligence is losing hype
From the August 24th 2024 edition
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
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Trump wastes no time in reigniting trade wars
Canada and Mexico look likely to suffer
How Trump, Starmer and Macron can avoid a debt crunch
With deficits soaring, their finance ministers will have to be smart
What Scott Bessent’s appointment means for the Trump administration
The president-elect’s nominee for treasury secretary faces a gruelling job
What Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders get wrong about credit cards
Forget interest rates. Rewards are the real problem
Computers unleashed economic growth. Will artificial intelligence?
Two years after ChatGPT-3.5 arrived, progress has been slower than expected
Should investors just give up on stocks outside America?
No, but it is getting a lot harder to keep the faith