Finance & economics | Qiang Ker-ching

How to measure China’s true economic growth

In search of a successor to the Li Keqiang Index

A TV screen in a restaurant shows live coverage of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reading his work report during the opening session of the National Peoples Congress in Beijing on March 5, 2023. (Photo by GREG BAKER / AFP) (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)
Image: Getty Images
|Hong Kong

When Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, gave his final speech at the National People’s Congress on March 5th, it was already clear who would succeed him. But a successor has yet to be found for the “Li Keqiang index”. This unofficial proxy for China’s economic growth was inspired by a leaked conversation between Mr Li, when he was party secretary for the province of Liaoning, and an American diplomat. Mr Li confessed that the province’s gdp figures were “unreliable”. Instead, he focused on electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank lending. Taking our cue from Mr Li, this newspaper thought it would be fun to see what the three indicators, bundled into a single index, revealed about China’s economy at a national level.

This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Qiang Ker-ching”

From the March 11th 2023 edition

Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents

Explore the edition

More from Finance & economics

China meets its official growth target. Not everyone is convinced

For one thing, 2024 saw the second-weakest rise in nominal GDP since the 1970s

Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaks during the launch of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on January 10th 2025

Ethiopia gets a stockmarket. Now it just needs some firms to list

The country is no longer the most populous without a bourse


Shibuya crossing in Tokyo, Japan

Are big cities overrated?

New economic research suggests so


Why catastrophe bonds are failing to cover disaster damage 

The innovative form of insurance is reaching its limits

“The Traitors”, a reality TV show, offers a useful economics lesson

It is a finite, sequential, incomplete information game

Will Donald Trump unleash Wall Street?

Bankers have plenty of reason to be hopeful