Tightening pains

ECONOMISTS and investors are not only worried about when the Federal Reserve will start to push up interest rates. Just as important is the scale and length of the tightening cycle—how much the Fed will need to tighten policy, and how long it will take to do so. There have been 12 American tightening cycles since 1955, and they have lasted just under two years on average. In five of the past seven instances, however, the Fed has relented in a year or less, largely because inflation has been relatively subdued in recent decades.