The EU’s best-laid plans for expansion are clashing with reality

After the fall of Poland at the start of the second world war, a paradoxical peace reigned. Carnage was on the cards, but not quite yet. The “phoney war” lasted for eight months, ending when Germany invaded its western neighbours. Today the European Union is going through a “phoney enlargement”. On paper up to nine countries are making progress towards membership. Both in the capitals of the countries looking to join and in Brussels, officials say preparations are being made, reforms enacted, boxes ticked. But whether the mooted expansion will happen is still doubtful. A flush of enthusiasm in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given way to the realisation that the journey from 27 to 36 will be long and uncertain. A target of 2030 used to be seen as aspirational. It now looks delusional.