Ursula von der Leyen is the favourite to keep leading the EU—right?

If a politician gives a speech but no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission since 2019, might have pondered this as she addressed the largely empty chamber of the European Parliament in Strasbourg on April 23rd. Despite grandiloquent claims of holding the European Union’s powerful executive arm to account, a mere handful of the over 700 MEPs showed up. Granted, those lawmakers who deigned to attend were treated to little more than a platitudinous account of an unremarkable meeting of European leaders the previous week. But the lack of cheering—the lack of anything—for Mrs von der Leyen among her fellow denizens of the EU bubble is enough to raise eyebrows. For soon the head of the 30,000-strong Brussels machine will have to persuade a majority of those MEPs to back her for a second five-year stint. The aura of inevitability of a von der Leyen second term has dimmed of late.