China’s low-fertility trap
The one-child policy may be gone, but its harmful effects linger
A SMALL NUMBER should haunt the sleep of China’s leaders: 1.1. That is the number of children that, given prevailing trends, each Chinese woman is expected to have on average during her child-bearing years. China’s total fertility rate (TFR), to use the demographers’ term, has fallen far below the 2.1 children needed for a stable population. Sure enough, in 2023 China’s population declined for the second year in a row.
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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “China’s low-fertility trap”
From the March 23rd 2024 edition
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