Could economic indicators give an early warning of a war over Taiwan?
Before any missiles are launched, food and fuel must be bought
In the early 1980s, during a tense period in the cold war, the Soviet Union feared that America and its allies were considering a nuclear strike and went looking for warning signs. The KGB’s list of indicators ranged well beyond the military sphere. Big campaigns to donate blood, the slaughter of livestock and the movement of art might signal that an attack was coming.
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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Clues to a conflict”
From the July 29th 2023 edition
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