China | Has the wave peaked?

Covid-19 has already torn through large swathes of China

But a second wave could be more deadly

QIANDONGNAN, CHINA - JANUARY 4, 2023 - A doctor provides medical services to a villager with mobility difficulties in Qiandongnan Miao and Dong autonomous prefecture, Southwest China's Guizhou province, Jan 4, 2023. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images) — A calm countryside mannerImage: Getty Images

Jan 19th 2023

There were many predictions about the rate at which covid-19 would spread in China. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in America thought cases would peak on April 1st. By that time, it said in December, a third of the country’s 1.4bn people would have been infected. Airfinity, a London-based data firm, said the peak would come on January 13th, with a second occurring on March 3rd. It predicted there would be 223m infections by May. The Economist’s own model suggested that, if the virus spread unchecked, the outbreak would be at its worst in early January, having infected 75% of the population.

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Has it peaked?”