Britain | Crossover

How tactical voting might affect the British election

The evidence for co-ordinated anti-Tory behaviour

A polling station for elections in Manchester, Britain.
Photograph: Jon Super/Xinhua/Eyevine

If an election were held tomorrow, our prediction model is sure that the Tories would lose. But it may still be being too kind, since it does not explicitly consider the potential for a jump in tactical voting. When the Conservatives have suffered landslide defeats in the past—as they did in 1906, 1945 and 1997—these have been at the hands of co-ordinated anti-Tory coalitions. Another such coalition may be forming now.

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This article appeared in the Britain section of the print edition under the headline “Crossover voters”

From the April 20th 2024 edition

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