Brexit finally becomes real for imports of EU goods into Britain

ECONOMISTS LOVE the idea of a natural experiment. One upside of Brexit was the chance to observe the impact of a country leaving a low-friction trade environment and moving to a harder border. Examples of such shifts are thin on the ground. But the natural experiment has turned out to be messier than anticipated. Brexit coincided with the pandemic and its associated lockdowns, and was quickly followed by the most severe energy-price shock in decades. A clean read on the economic fallout from Britain’s departure from the EU has proved impossible.