United States | Follow the real money

Financial markets are betting on a Trump victory

Harris’s odds have perked up but she is still the underdog

A Polymarket advertisement in the Brooklyn
Photograph: Getty Images

THE FINAL election polls have been published, and in-person voting has yet to conclude. It is an anxious period, with little new information to parse about who might emerge victorious as America’s next president. But that is not stopping investors from placing, and adjusting, their bets. From prediction markets to bonds, they have more ways than ever to register their views about the likely outcome of the election. Most of their money is on Donald Trump, though his perceived lead over Kamala Harris has narrowed in the past few days.

Explore more

Discover more

A container ship sails as the sun sets in Bayonne, New Jersey, United States.

Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?

Yes, but other factors could hold him back

Special Counsel Jack Smith delivers remarks on a recently unsealed indictment including four felony counts against former U.S. President Donald Trump.

As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution

The president-elect hopes to hand the justice department to loyalists



Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks

The president-elect’s intelligence picks suggest a radical agenda

Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as America’s attorney-general

Will the Senate be brave enough to block Donald Trump’s other outlandish nominees?