Why Kamala Harris’s chances of victory just jumped
Our forecast now puts her level with Donald Trump
Our statistical model of America’s presidential election will be updated six more times before votes are counted. There are few opportunities for candidates to move the dial in an election which has been stubbornly close since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. Today’s update will cheer her supporters: the vice-president’s probability of victory rose by six percentage points, making the race a dead heat.
Explore more
Discover more
Does Donald Trump have unlimited authority to impose tariffs?
Yes, but other factors could hold him back
As Jack Smith exits, Donald Trump’s allies hint at retribution
The president-elect hopes to hand the justice department to loyalists
Democratic states are preparing for Donald Trump’s return
But Mr Trump will be more prepared, too
Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard are coming for the spooks
The president-elect’s intelligence picks suggest a radical agenda
Checks and Balance newsletter: Trump is embracing a shift in Republican priorities
Will he follow through on his policy commitments?
Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration as America’s attorney-general
Will the Senate be brave enough to block Donald Trump’s other outlandish nominees?