What are the odds of an upset in Texas or Florida?

“I’VE BEEN saying this for months now and a lot of people haven’t listened, but now they are: the stars are aligning in both Texas and Florida,” says Jaime Harrison, the chair of the Democratic National Committee. Aboard a swanky campaign bus in Jacksonville, Florida’s largest city, Mr Harrison’s tone shifts to distress as he explains that his party needs “multiple pathways to get the Senate majority”. In the final weeks of the campaign the map has become more daunting for Democrats. To their dismay, holding the upper chamber may now depend on flipping seats in America’s two biggest Republican-controlled states, where Donald Trump is expected to win comfortably.