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The World Ahead | Europe in 2025

The uncertain outlook for European security

Go it alone on defence, stick with America or try to muddle through?

Collage of Putin with US and  Nato flags
Illustration: Cristiana Couceiro

By Shashank Joshi, Defence editor, The Economist

DONALD TRUMP’S return to the White House is a bombshell moment for Europe. The continent’s powers face the erosion, perhaps dissolution, of their principal alliance at the very moment that Russia has the upper hand in the war in Ukraine. They face a stark choice: find an accommodation with the Kremlin or vastly increase spending on defence and security to keep Ukraine solvent and Vladimir Putin at bay. That debate could unite Europe. It is just as likely to split it.

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This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2025 under the headline “Europe’s perilous choice”

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