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The World Ahead | By Invitation: United States in 2025

Sarah Paine outlines how America should deal with the “quartet of chaos”

The professor of history and grand strategy at the US Naval War College says history offers valuable lessons

Portrait of Sarah Paine
Illustration: Diego Mallo

By Sarah Paine, professor of history and grand strategy at the US Naval War College

The second cold war began with Xi Jinping’s accession to power, Vladimir Putin’s disposal of term limits in 2012 and Russia’s ingestion of 7% of Ukraine in 2014. Both leaders have signalled that international norms no longer matter and they have deepened their relations with Iran and North Korea, portending a hostile alliance variously known as CRINK, the axis of upheaval or the quartet of chaos. In 2025, how should America respond to it?

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This article appeared in the United States section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2025 under the headline “How America should deal with the quartet of chaos”

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