Special report | The long road back
The inflation problem will get better before it gets worse
When current disruptions recede, the underlying rate of inflation will remain higher than before the pandemic
In 1978 milton friedman looked back at three recessions that had struck America’s economy over the preceding decade. “Each scenario has been the same,” he wrote. Loose money created a boom and then inflation. An outcry against rising prices led to higher interest rates and a recession, only for rising unemployment to catch more public attention. So economic policy turned stimulatory. Just as inflation began to fall, another boom kicked off. The inflationary cycle began again.
This article appeared in the Special report section of the print edition under the headline “Long road back”