The Economist poll of forecasters

Every three months, The Economist polls a group of forecasters and averages their predictions for economic growth and current-account balances in 25 emerging economies. Our panel has become much gloomier over the past three months. Average forecasts for GDP growth in 2002 have been reduced in 19 out of the 25 economies. For 2003 our seers have cut their average growth forecast in all but two countries. Turkey is one of the exceptions where our forecasters have become more optimistic. Our panel now expects Turkey's GDP to grow by 4.1% in 2002, compared with a forecast of 2.5% in July. Argentina will see by far the biggest fall in output among emerging economies this year: its GDP is expected to shrink by 12.5%.