CANADA

The OECD predicts that Canada's economy will grow by 4.5% in 2000, its ninth consecutive year of expansion. A slowdown in the United States, Canada's biggest trading partner, is expected to cool the economy in 2001. Exports to America—particularly of manufactured goods—kept Canada buoyant during the Asian crisis of 1997-98. Canada ran a trade surplus during that time, although its current-account balance slipped into deficit as foreign firms' Canadian profits surged. Both trade measures should be in surplus this year. Unemployment is likely to fall to 6.6% in 2000. But declining joblessness has not triggered inflation, which was only 1.2% in 1999. Rising oil costs may push prices up by 2.2% in 2000, but inflation should stay below the government's upper target of 3% in 2001.