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We woz wrong

Newspapers are quick to crow about their predictive triumphs. But what about when they are wrong? The editor of The Economist owns up to our recent, er, disappointments and explains why forecasts are so often wrong

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A MESSAGE was sent to all our writers, offering a bribe (a bottle of good wine) for every admission of a forecast gone wrong that ended up being used in this article. Amazingly (that's British irony, see article), the editor's wine cellar has not been much depleted as a result. A remarkable number of the non-confessors—the biggest category of replies—defended our apparent errors by quoting John Maynard Keynes: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Some even got the quote right, unlike Charlemagne in our issue of October 17th 1998.

This article appeared in the New Articles section of the print edition under the headline “We woz wrong”

Bleak and bloody Russia

From the December 18th 1999 edition

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